Furthermore, the difficulties relative to observations that CMIP5 models have in simulating the frequency and location of cloud bands (James et al. For ease of comparison, precipitation (atmosphere variables) in the models are re-gridded using bilinear interpolation to a common 1.5° × 1.5° (2.5° × 2.5°) grid. This bimodal cycle is a weaker version of that evident in Southern Hemisphere regions (and related to the semiannual oscillation) which are located more in the mid-latitudes such as southern Victoria, Australia which extends to 38° S as compared to the Eastern Cape which lies north of 33–34° S. Almost all the models show a much wetter summer half of the year than winter but only some show February or November as the wettest months. Maps of the number of rain days (> 1 mm per day), heavy rain days (> 10 mm per day) and their trend across the province are plotted in Fig. As a result, the meteorology here is complex and often involves interactions with the regional topography or the neighbouring warm Agulhas Current (e.g., Rouault et al. These anomalous locations of the anticyclones further encourage less (more) cloud bands and cold fronts over the Eastern Cape region during dry (wet) springs. It also has vast resources of uranium, titanium, gold, diamonds, and iron. 2018; Mahlalela et al. The omega anomalies (Fig. in East Africa areas of less than 500mm may be regarded as arid. The main features of the rainfall climatology in West Africa. Geophys Res Lett 26:215–218, Reason CJC (2001) Subtropical Indian Ocean SST dipole events and southern African rainfall. The multi-model mean (MMM) in given in the last panel. This drought has had major socio-economic effects particularly on the large impoverished rural population as well as on some urban areas where supplied water services have broken down in several cases. 8a) in the dry (wet) springs. Correspondence to Figure 1 shows the rainfall gradients and totals across the Eastern Cape during the spring and summer in relation to those that exist across the rest of southern Africa (summer rainfall dominated everywhere except for western South Africa and the south coast of South Africa). Drought in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa and trends in rainfall characteristics, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0731.s1, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0. The correlation between SON rainfall and a the zonal wave number 3 index of Raphael (2004) and b only the South Indian Ocean High component of that index. Nonetheless, the complex geography and meteorology of this region does provide an interesting test bed for climate models. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027721, Hansingo K, Reason CJC (2009) Modelling the atmospheric response over southern Africa to SST forcing in the southeast tropical Atlantic and southwest subtropical Indian Oceans. The western coast of the Eastern Cape merges into the small all-season rainfall region that extends along the south coast of South Africa between about 22–25° E (Weldon and Reason 2014; Engelbrecht et al. Since the Eastern Cape is only part of the large area in southern Africa affected by cloud bands, small errors in the model simulations of cloud bands can therefore lead to substantial discrepancies in the resulting model simulation of seasonal rainfall. The “west” basin also shows a significant negative correlation with the northern extent of the SIHP (Fig. The Nino 3.4 index, SAM index and SIOD were downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer (https://climexp.knmi.nl). Int J Climatol 27:295–310, Sousa PM, Blamey RC, Reason CJC, Ramos AM, Trigo RM (2018) The ‘Day Zero’ Cape Town drought and the poleward migration of moisture corridors. Areas that are statistically significant at the 95% level are denoted by stippling. Trends in spring rainfall characteristics were also investigated. Also shown are the locations of the main dams of the region that have seen large water level drops as well as locations of the main towns/cities. However, given the strong land and ocean surface gradients in the region and its sensitivity to both tropical and midlatitude circulation, it is not surprising that the models should show a spread in projections over the Eastern Cape and have difficulties in accurately representing its climate. Mineral and timber exports earn the countries a lot of income. 6 using CHIRPS data. It is a region of diverse people and cultures. It is characterised by strong topographic, soil moisture and vegetation gradients and its coast is close to the highly variable Agulhas Current (the most intense western boundary current in the global oceans). The correlation between the two datasets is given at the bottom left of each panel. tropical Africa shifts by more than six standard deviations under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), moving this region to a new climatic regime by the end of the twenty-ﬁrst century. Part 6, Rainfall in South Africa. Drought in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa and trends in rainfall characteristics. Equatorial Africa is rich in natural resources, with rich mineral deposits and natural rainforests. Projections also indicate drying but less pronounced than that projected for the spring season of interest and Coordination.... 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